Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol Prediction & Preview
Serie A (Brazil) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE A (BRAZIL)
Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol
Model pick: Mirassol (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.48
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vasco da Gama | Mirassol |
|---|
| League position | #17 (20 pts) | #18 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Vasco da Gama shown at home, Mirassol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vasco da Gama — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Mirassol — last 5
WLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vasco da Gama (home) | Mirassol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (1.2 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-1-6 in 8 (0.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 33% |
Serie A (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie A (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.27 vs 1.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Vasco da Gama or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Mirassol or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Vasco da Gama clean sheet | 23% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mirassol is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Mirassol edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol — FAQ
Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model makes Mirassol the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Vasco da Gama 33%, draw 26%, Mirassol 41%.
Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?
Expected goals are 1.27 for Vasco da Gama and 1.48 for Mirassol — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Vasco da Gama or draw is 58%.