Velka Bites vs Pelhrimov Prediction & Preview
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 4 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Velka Bites vs Pelhrimov
Model pick: Pelhrimov (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.25 – 0.96
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 25%
Both teams score: 31%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Velka Bites | Pelhrimov |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 1.33 / 1.33 |
*Velka Bites shown at home, Pelhrimov shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Velka Bites — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Pelhrimov — last 5
WDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Velka Bites (home) | Pelhrimov (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.72
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 37%
Over 2.5: 75%
BTTS: 67%
Use these Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.25 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (30%) |
| Double chance — Velka Bites or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Pelhrimov or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 63% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Velka Bites clean sheet | 38% |
| Pelhrimov clean sheet | 78% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pelhrimov is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Pelhrimov edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (75% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Velka Bites vs Pelhrimov — FAQ
Who will win Velka Bites vs Pelhrimov?
Our statistical model makes Pelhrimov the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Velka Bites 12%, draw 38%, Pelhrimov 51%.
Will both teams score in Velka Bites vs Pelhrimov?
The model gives a 31% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Velka Bites vs Pelhrimov?
Expected goals are 0.25 for Velka Bites and 0.96 for Pelhrimov — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Velka Bites vs Pelhrimov?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (30%). Double chance for Velka Bites or draw is 47%.