Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki Prediction & Preview
J2-League (Japan) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J2-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Model pick: Ventforet Kofu (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.91 – 0.11
Total goals: 1.0
Over 2.5: 21%
Both teams score: 23%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ventforet Kofu | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
|---|
| League position | #1 (33 pts) | #1 (47 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.9 | 2.0 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 78% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 2.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
*Ventforet Kofu shown at home, Tegevajaro Miyazaki shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ventforet Kofu — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki — last 5
DL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ventforet Kofu (home) | Tegevajaro Miyazaki (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-0-3 in 8 (1.5 / 0.9 goals per game) | 7-0-2 in 9 (2.0 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 0% |
J2-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J2-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.91 vs 0.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (36%) |
| Double chance — Ventforet Kofu or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 60% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 2% / 98% |
| Ventforet Kofu clean sheet | 90% |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ventforet Kofu is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Ventforet Kofu are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (79% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki — FAQ
Who will win Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
Our statistical model makes Ventforet Kofu the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Ventforet Kofu 54%, draw 40%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 6%.
Will both teams score in Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
The model gives a 23% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
Expected goals are 0.91 for Ventforet Kofu and 0.11 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki — about 1.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (36%). Double chance for Ventforet Kofu or draw is 96%.