Verl vs MSV Duisburg Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Verl vs MSV Duisburg
Model pick: Verl (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.94 – 1.29
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Verl | MSV Duisburg |
|---|
| League position | #19 (0 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Verl shown at home, MSV Duisburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Verl — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
MSV Duisburg — last 5
WLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Verl (home) | MSV Duisburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Jonas Arweiler (11) | Conor Noss (7) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.94 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Verl or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — MSV Duisburg or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Verl clean sheet | 28% |
| MSV Duisburg clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Verl is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Verl are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Verl vs MSV Duisburg — FAQ
Who will win Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
Our statistical model makes Verl the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Verl 45%, draw 25%, MSV Duisburg 30%.
Will both teams score in Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
Expected goals are 1.94 for Verl and 1.29 for MSV Duisburg — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Verl vs MSV Duisburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Verl or draw is 75%.