VfB Marburg vs Fernwald Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
VfB Marburg vs Fernwald
Model pick: VfB Marburg (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| VfB Marburg | Fernwald |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*VfB Marburg shown at home, Fernwald shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
VfB Marburg — last 5
WDDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Fernwald — last 5
DDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | VfB Marburg (home) | Fernwald (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.61
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — VfB Marburg or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Fernwald or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| VfB Marburg clean sheet | 40% |
| Fernwald clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
VfB Marburg is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. VfB Marburg are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ VfB Marburg vs Fernwald — FAQ
Who will win VfB Marburg vs Fernwald?
Our statistical model makes VfB Marburg the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: VfB Marburg 48%, draw 28%, Fernwald 24%.
Will both teams score in VfB Marburg vs Fernwald?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in VfB Marburg vs Fernwald?
Expected goals are 1.49 for VfB Marburg and 0.91 for Fernwald — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in VfB Marburg vs Fernwald?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for VfB Marburg or draw is 77%.