VfR Mannheim vs FC 08 Homburg Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
VfR Mannheim vs FC 08 Homburg
Model pick: VfR Mannheim (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 0.52
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 30%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| VfR Mannheim | FC 08 Homburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*VfR Mannheim shown at home, FC 08 Homburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
VfR Mannheim — last 5
LDLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
FC 08 Homburg — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 83% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | VfR Mannheim (home) | FC 08 Homburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 83% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.25
Home wins: 34%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 0.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — VfR Mannheim or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — FC 08 Homburg or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 63% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 6% / 94% |
| VfR Mannheim clean sheet | 59% |
| FC 08 Homburg clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
VfR Mannheim is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. VfR Mannheim are backed at home, where they average 0.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (70% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ VfR Mannheim vs FC 08 Homburg — FAQ
Who will win VfR Mannheim vs FC 08 Homburg?
Our statistical model makes VfR Mannheim the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: VfR Mannheim 41%, draw 37%, FC 08 Homburg 22%.
Will both teams score in VfR Mannheim vs FC 08 Homburg?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in VfR Mannheim vs FC 08 Homburg?
Expected goals are 0.9 for VfR Mannheim and 0.52 for FC 08 Homburg — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in VfR Mannheim vs FC 08 Homburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (24%). Double chance for VfR Mannheim or draw is 80%.