Vila Nova vs Goiás Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Vila Nova vs Goiás
Model pick: Vila Nova (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vila Nova | Goiás |
|---|
| League position | #2 (44 pts) | #10 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 0.9 | 1.0 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Vila Nova shown at home, Goiás shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vila Nova — last 5
LWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Goiás — last 5
WLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vila Nova (home) | Goiás (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 9-2-1 in 12 (2.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 3-5-5 in 13 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Janderson (5) | Kadu (7) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Vila Nova or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Goiás or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Vila Nova clean sheet | 38% |
| Goiás clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vila Nova is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Vila Nova are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vila Nova vs Goiás — FAQ
Who will win Vila Nova vs Goiás?
Our statistical model makes Vila Nova the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Vila Nova 38%, draw 30%, Goiás 32%.
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Goiás?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vila Nova vs Goiás?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Vila Nova and 0.97 for Goiás — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vila Nova vs Goiás?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Vila Nova or draw is 69%.