Vila Nova vs Sport Recife Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Vila Nova vs Sport Recife
Model pick: Vila Nova (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.21
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vila Nova | Sport Recife |
|---|
| League position | #5 (34 pts) | #10 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 78% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Vila Nova shown at home, Sport Recife shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vila Nova — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Sport Recife — last 5
LDDDD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vila Nova (home) | Sport Recife (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-0 in 9 (2.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-4-2 in 9 (0.9 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Janderson (4) | Barletta Chrystian (8) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Vila Nova or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Vila Nova clean sheet | 30% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vila Nova is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Vila Nova are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Vila Nova vs Sport Recife — FAQ
Who will win Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model makes Vila Nova the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Vila Nova 40%, draw 30%, Sport Recife 31%.
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Vila Nova and 1.21 for Sport Recife — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vila Nova vs Sport Recife?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Vila Nova or draw is 64%.