Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet
Model pick: Vilassar Mar (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vilassar Mar | Pobla Mafumet |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Vilassar Mar shown at home, Pobla Mafumet shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vilassar Mar — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Pobla Mafumet — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vilassar Mar (home) | Pobla Mafumet (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Vilassar Mar or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Pobla Mafumet or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Vilassar Mar clean sheet | 40% |
| Pobla Mafumet clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vilassar Mar is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Vilassar Mar are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet — FAQ
Who will win Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet?
Our statistical model makes Vilassar Mar the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Vilassar Mar 39%, draw 31%, Pobla Mafumet 30%.
Will both teams score in Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet?
Expected goals are 1.1 for Vilassar Mar and 0.91 for Pobla Mafumet — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vilassar Mar vs Pobla Mafumet?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Vilassar Mar or draw is 70%.