Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo
Model pick: Villalbés (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Villalbés | Atlético Arteixo |
|---|
| League position | #5 (52 pts) | #3 (58 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 41% | 41% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.8 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Villalbés shown at home, Atlético Arteixo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Villalbés — last 5
LLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Arteixo — last 5
DWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Villalbés (home) | Atlético Arteixo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-4-6 in 17 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 7-5-5 in 17 (1.4 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 50% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Villalbés or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Atlético Arteixo or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Villalbés clean sheet | 41% |
| Atlético Arteixo clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Villalbés is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Villalbés are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo — FAQ
Who will win Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo?
Our statistical model makes Villalbés the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Villalbés 44%, draw 29%, Atlético Arteixo 26%.
Will both teams score in Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Villalbés and 0.88 for Atlético Arteixo — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Villalbés vs Atlético Arteixo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Villalbés or draw is 75%.