Villarreal II vs Algeciras Prediction & Preview
Segunda B (Spain) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA B (SPAIN)
Villarreal II vs Algeciras
Model pick: Villarreal II (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Villarreal II | Algeciras |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*Villarreal II shown at home, Algeciras shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Villarreal II — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Algeciras — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Villarreal II (home) | Algeciras (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
Segunda B (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Segunda B (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.6 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Villarreal II or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Algeciras or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Villarreal II clean sheet | 46% |
| Algeciras clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Villarreal II is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Villarreal II are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Villarreal II vs Algeciras — FAQ
Who will win Villarreal II vs Algeciras?
Our statistical model makes Villarreal II the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Villarreal II 54%, draw 26%, Algeciras 20%.
Will both teams score in Villarreal II vs Algeciras?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Villarreal II vs Algeciras?
Expected goals are 1.6 for Villarreal II and 0.77 for Algeciras — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal II vs Algeciras?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Villarreal II or draw is 82%.