Vis Pesaro vs Ostiamare Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Vis Pesaro vs Ostiamare
Model pick: Vis Pesaro (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 0.51
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vis Pesaro | Ostiamare |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.6 | 0.4 / 2.2 |
*Vis Pesaro shown at home, Ostiamare shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vis Pesaro — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Ostiamare — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vis Pesaro (home) | Ostiamare (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 67% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 0.51):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Vis Pesaro or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Ostiamare or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Vis Pesaro clean sheet | 60% |
| Ostiamare clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vis Pesaro is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Vis Pesaro are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vis Pesaro vs Ostiamare — FAQ
Who will win Vis Pesaro vs Ostiamare?
Our statistical model makes Vis Pesaro the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Vis Pesaro 60%, draw 26%, Ostiamare 14%.
Will both teams score in Vis Pesaro vs Ostiamare?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vis Pesaro vs Ostiamare?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Vis Pesaro and 0.51 for Ostiamare — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vis Pesaro vs Ostiamare?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Vis Pesaro or draw is 89%.