Vis Pesaro vs Perugia Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Vis Pesaro vs Perugia
Model pick: Vis Pesaro (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.05 – 0.97
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vis Pesaro | Perugia |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Vis Pesaro shown at home, Perugia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vis Pesaro — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Perugia — last 5
LDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vis Pesaro (home) | Perugia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 42% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.05 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Vis Pesaro or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Perugia or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Vis Pesaro clean sheet | 38% |
| Perugia clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vis Pesaro is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Vis Pesaro are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vis Pesaro vs Perugia — FAQ
Who will win Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
Our statistical model makes Vis Pesaro the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Vis Pesaro 36%, draw 31%, Perugia 33%.
Will both teams score in Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
Expected goals are 1.05 for Vis Pesaro and 0.97 for Perugia — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Vis Pesaro or draw is 67%.