Vitória vs Bahia Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Vitória vs Bahia
Model pick: Vitória (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vitória | Bahia |
|---|
| League position | #12 (29 pts) | #6 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 73% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Vitória shown at home, Bahia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vitória — last 5
LLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Bahia — last 5
DDDDD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vitória (home) | Bahia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-1-2 in 11 (1.5 / 0.6 goals per game) | 4-4-3 in 11 (1.4 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Jose Willian (2) |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Vitória or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Bahia or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Vitória clean sheet | 32% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vitória is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Vitória are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vitória vs Bahia — FAQ
Who will win Vitória vs Bahia?
Our statistical model makes Vitória the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Vitória 38%, draw 29%, Bahia 34%.
Will both teams score in Vitória vs Bahia?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vitória vs Bahia?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Vitória and 1.15 for Bahia — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vitória vs Bahia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Vitória or draw is 68%.