Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
Model pick: Vitoria Guimaraes (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.83
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vitoria Guimaraes | Casa Pia |
|---|
| League position | #12 (3 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 3.4 |
*Vitoria Guimaraes shown at home, Casa Pia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vitoria Guimaraes — last 5
DLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Casa Pia — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vitoria Guimaraes (home) | Casa Pia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.6 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Vitoria Guimaraes or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Casa Pia or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Vitoria Guimaraes clean sheet | 44% |
| Casa Pia clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vitoria Guimaraes is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Vitoria Guimaraes are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia — FAQ
Who will win Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model makes Vitoria Guimaraes the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Vitoria Guimaraes 57%, draw 25%, Casa Pia 18%.
Will both teams score in Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Expected goals are 1.6 for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.83 for Casa Pia — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Vitoria Guimaraes or draw is 81%.