Vizela vs Amarante Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Vizela vs Amarante
Model pick: Vizela (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.5 – 0.39
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vizela | Amarante |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 0.5 / 1.75 |
*Vizela shown at home, Amarante shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vizela — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Amarante — last 5
LLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vizela (home) | Amarante (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 67% |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.5 vs 0.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — Vizela or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Amarante or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Vizela clean sheet | 68% |
| Amarante clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vizela is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Vizela are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vizela vs Amarante — FAQ
Who will win Vizela vs Amarante?
Our statistical model makes Vizela the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Vizela 61%, draw 27%, Amarante 12%.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Amarante?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vizela vs Amarante?
Expected goals are 1.5 for Vizela and 0.39 for Amarante — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vizela vs Amarante?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (23%). Double chance for Vizela or draw is 91%.