Volendam vs Dordrecht Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Volendam vs Dordrecht
Model pick: Volendam (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.17 – 1.13
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Volendam | Dordrecht |
|---|
| League position | #16 (32 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Volendam shown at home, Dordrecht shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Volendam — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 68% of home games go over 2.5.
Dordrecht — last 5
DLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Volendam (home) | Dordrecht (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.17 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Volendam or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Dordrecht or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Volendam clean sheet | 32% |
| Dordrecht clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Volendam is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Volendam are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Volendam vs Dordrecht — FAQ
Who will win Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model makes Volendam the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Volendam 57%, draw 22%, Dordrecht 21%.
Will both teams score in Volendam vs Dordrecht?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Expected goals are 2.17 for Volendam and 1.13 for Dordrecht — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Volendam vs Dordrecht?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Volendam or draw is 81%.