Vreden vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Vreden vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen
Model pick: Vreden (73%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
15%
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen
Expected goals: 4.76 – 2.2
Total goals: 7.0
Over 2.5: 86%
Both teams score: 73%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vreden | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 2.33 | 1.67 / 2.0 |
*Vreden shown at home, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vreden — last 5
WWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
SpVgg Herne Horsthausen — last 5
LWL
On the road: clean sheet 100% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vreden (home) | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.59
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.76 vs 2.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-2 (5%) |
| Double chance — Vreden or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — SpVgg Herne Horsthausen or draw (X2) | 23% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Vreden clean sheet | 11% |
| SpVgg Herne Horsthausen clean sheet | 1% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vreden is the model's most likely outcome at
73%. Vreden are backed at home, where they average 3.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 7.0, this shapes as an open game (86% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vreden vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen — FAQ
Who will win Vreden vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
Our statistical model makes Vreden the most likely result at 73%. Full probabilities: Vreden 73%, draw 13%, SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 15%.
Will both teams score in Vreden vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
The model gives a 73% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vreden vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
Expected goals are 4.76 for Vreden and 2.2 for SpVgg Herne Horsthausen — about 7.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vreden vs SpVgg Herne Horsthausen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-2 (5%). Double chance for Vreden or draw is 88%.