VSK Aarhus vs Lyngby Prediction & Preview
Denmark Cup · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DENMARK CUP
VSK Aarhus vs Lyngby
Model pick: Lyngby (98%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.22 – 5.44
Total goals: 5.7
Over 2.5: 78%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| VSK Aarhus | Lyngby |
|---|
| League position | #1 (13 pts) | #11 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.3 | 1.0 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*VSK Aarhus shown at home, Lyngby shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
VSK Aarhus — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Lyngby — last 5
LDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | VSK Aarhus (home) | Lyngby (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (2.0 / 0.3 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (1.0 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 54% |
Denmark Cup — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.08
Home wins: 19%
Draws: 3%
Away wins: 78%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Denmark Cup averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.22 vs 5.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-5 (15%) |
| Double chance — VSK Aarhus or draw (1X) | 1% |
| Double chance — Lyngby or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| VSK Aarhus clean sheet | 0% |
| Lyngby clean sheet | 80% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lyngby is the model's most likely outcome at
98%. Despite playing away, Lyngby edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.7, this shapes as an open game (78% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ VSK Aarhus vs Lyngby — FAQ
Who will win VSK Aarhus vs Lyngby?
Our statistical model makes Lyngby the most likely result at 98%. Full probabilities: VSK Aarhus 0%, draw 2%, Lyngby 98%.
Will both teams score in VSK Aarhus vs Lyngby?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in VSK Aarhus vs Lyngby?
Expected goals are 0.22 for VSK Aarhus and 5.44 for Lyngby — about 5.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in VSK Aarhus vs Lyngby?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-5 (15%). Double chance for VSK Aarhus or draw is 1%.