Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl
Model pick: Waldhof Mannheim (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.72
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Waldhof Mannheim | Verl |
|---|
| League position | #9 (4 pts) | #20 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 3.4 |
*Waldhof Mannheim shown at home, Verl shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Waldhof Mannheim — last 5
WLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Verl — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Waldhof Mannheim (home) | Verl (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 68% |
| Top scorer | Felix Lohkemper (12) | Jonas Arweiler (11) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Waldhof Mannheim or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Verl or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Waldhof Mannheim clean sheet | 18% |
| Verl clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Waldhof Mannheim is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Waldhof Mannheim are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl — FAQ
Who will win Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl?
Our statistical model makes Waldhof Mannheim the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Waldhof Mannheim 38%, draw 24%, Verl 38%.
Will both teams score in Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.72 for Verl — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Waldhof Mannheim vs Verl?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Waldhof Mannheim or draw is 58%.