Wallern/St Marienkirchen vs Wals-Grunau Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Austria) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Wallern/St Marienkirchen vs Wals-Grunau
Model pick: Wallern/St Marienkirchen (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
71%
Wallern/St Marienkirchen
Expected goals: 3.06 – 1.12
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wallern/St Marienkirchen | Wals-Grunau |
|---|
| League position | #8 (40 pts) | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.7 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Wallern/St Marienkirchen shown at home, Wals-Grunau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wallern/St Marienkirchen — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Wals-Grunau — last 5
WWDDD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wallern/St Marienkirchen (home) | Wals-Grunau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-7 in 15 (1.8 / 1.7 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
Regionalliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Regionalliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.06 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Wallern/St Marienkirchen or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Wals-Grunau or draw (X2) | 24% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Wallern/St Marienkirchen clean sheet | 33% |
| Wals-Grunau clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wallern/St Marienkirchen is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Wallern/St Marienkirchen are backed at home, where they average 5.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wallern/St Marienkirchen vs Wals-Grunau — FAQ
Who will win Wallern/St Marienkirchen vs Wals-Grunau?
Our statistical model makes Wallern/St Marienkirchen the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Wallern/St Marienkirchen 71%, draw 16%, Wals-Grunau 13%.
Will both teams score in Wallern/St Marienkirchen vs Wals-Grunau?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Wallern/St Marienkirchen vs Wals-Grunau?
Expected goals are 3.06 for Wallern/St Marienkirchen and 1.12 for Wals-Grunau — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wallern/St Marienkirchen vs Wals-Grunau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (8%). Double chance for Wallern/St Marienkirchen or draw is 89%.