Wanderers vs Cerro Largo Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Wanderers vs Cerro Largo
Model pick: Wanderers (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wanderers | Cerro Largo |
|---|
| League position | #4 (38 pts) | #10 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Wanderers shown at home, Cerro Largo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wanderers — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Cerro Largo — last 5
WDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wanderers (home) | Cerro Largo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 35% |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Wanderers or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Cerro Largo or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Wanderers clean sheet | 37% |
| Cerro Largo clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wanderers is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Wanderers are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wanderers vs Cerro Largo — FAQ
Who will win Wanderers vs Cerro Largo?
Our statistical model makes Wanderers the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Wanderers 39%, draw 31%, Cerro Largo 30%.
Will both teams score in Wanderers vs Cerro Largo?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Wanderers vs Cerro Largo?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Wanderers and 1.0 for Cerro Largo — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wanderers vs Cerro Largo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (14%). Double chance for Wanderers or draw is 65%.