Warta Gorzow vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Warta Gorzow vs Górnik Polkowice
Model pick: Warta Gorzow (99%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 11.86 – 1.68
Total goals: 13.5
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Warta Gorzow | Górnik Polkowice |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 2.2 |
*Warta Gorzow shown at home, Górnik Polkowice shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Warta Gorzow — last 5
DLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Górnik Polkowice — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Warta Gorzow (home) | Górnik Polkowice (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 62% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (11.86 vs 1.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 8-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Warta Gorzow or draw (1X) | 100% |
| Double chance — Górnik Polkowice or draw (X2) | 1% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Warta Gorzow clean sheet | 19% |
| Górnik Polkowice clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Warta Gorzow is the model's most likely outcome at
99%. Warta Gorzow are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Warta Gorzow vs Górnik Polkowice — FAQ
Who will win Warta Gorzow vs Górnik Polkowice?
Our statistical model makes Warta Gorzow the most likely result at 99%. Full probabilities: Warta Gorzow 99%, draw 1%, Górnik Polkowice 0%.
Will both teams score in Warta Gorzow vs Górnik Polkowice?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Warta Gorzow vs Górnik Polkowice?
Expected goals are 11.86 for Warta Gorzow and 1.68 for Górnik Polkowice — about 13.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Warta Gorzow vs Górnik Polkowice?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 8-1 (13%). Double chance for Warta Gorzow or draw is 100%.