Warta Gorzow vs Zagłębie Lubin II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Warta Gorzow vs Zagłębie Lubin II
Model pick: Warta Gorzow (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Warta Gorzow | Zagłębie Lubin II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Warta Gorzow shown at home, Zagłębie Lubin II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Warta Gorzow — last 5
LWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Zagłębie Lubin II — last 5
WDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 11% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Warta Gorzow (home) | Zagłębie Lubin II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 67% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Warta Gorzow or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Zagłębie Lubin II or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Warta Gorzow clean sheet | 27% |
| Zagłębie Lubin II clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Warta Gorzow is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Warta Gorzow are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Warta Gorzow vs Zagłębie Lubin II — FAQ
Who will win Warta Gorzow vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
Our statistical model makes Warta Gorzow the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Warta Gorzow 37%, draw 27%, Zagłębie Lubin II 36%.
Will both teams score in Warta Gorzow vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Warta Gorzow vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Warta Gorzow and 1.32 for Zagłębie Lubin II — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Warta Gorzow vs Zagłębie Lubin II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Warta Gorzow or draw is 64%.