Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II
Model pick: Jagiellonia II (98%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.19 – 12.23
Total goals: 14.4
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Warta Sieradz | Jagiellonia II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 2.5 / 2.0 |
*Warta Sieradz shown at home, Jagiellonia II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Warta Sieradz — last 5
WDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Jagiellonia II — last 5
DWWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Warta Sieradz (home) | Jagiellonia II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.19 vs 12.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-8 (12%) |
| Double chance — Warta Sieradz or draw (1X) | 2% |
| Double chance — Jagiellonia II or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Warta Sieradz clean sheet | 0% |
| Jagiellonia II clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jagiellonia II is the model's most likely outcome at
98%. Despite playing away, Jagiellonia II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II — FAQ
Who will win Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II?
Our statistical model makes Jagiellonia II the most likely result at 98%. Full probabilities: Warta Sieradz 1%, draw 1%, Jagiellonia II 98%.
Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II?
Expected goals are 2.19 for Warta Sieradz and 12.23 for Jagiellonia II — about 14.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Warta Sieradz vs Jagiellonia II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-8 (12%). Double chance for Warta Sieradz or draw is 2%.