Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg
Model pick: Olimpia Elbląg (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 2.33
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Warta Sieradz | Olimpia Elbląg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
*Warta Sieradz shown at home, Olimpia Elbląg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Warta Sieradz — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 86% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Elbląg — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Warta Sieradz (home) | Olimpia Elbląg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 42% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 2.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Warta Sieradz or draw (1X) | 35% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Elbląg or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Warta Sieradz clean sheet | 10% |
| Olimpia Elbląg clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpia Elbląg is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, Olimpia Elbląg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg — FAQ
Who will win Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg?
Our statistical model makes Olimpia Elbląg the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Warta Sieradz 18%, draw 21%, Olimpia Elbląg 61%.
Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Warta Sieradz and 2.33 for Olimpia Elbląg — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Warta Sieradz or draw is 35%.