Warta Sieradz vs Zabki Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Warta Sieradz vs Zabki
Model pick: Warta Sieradz (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 1.11
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Warta Sieradz | Zabki |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 2.25 |
*Warta Sieradz shown at home, Zabki shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Warta Sieradz — last 5
DWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 83% of home games go over 2.5.
Zabki — last 5
DLWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Warta Sieradz (home) | Zabki (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 67% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Warta Sieradz or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Zabki or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Warta Sieradz clean sheet | 33% |
| Zabki clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Warta Sieradz is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Warta Sieradz are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Warta Sieradz vs Zabki — FAQ
Who will win Warta Sieradz vs Zabki?
Our statistical model makes Warta Sieradz the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Warta Sieradz 40%, draw 28%, Zabki 32%.
Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Zabki?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Warta Sieradz vs Zabki?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Warta Sieradz and 1.11 for Zabki — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Warta Sieradz vs Zabki?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Warta Sieradz or draw is 68%.