Waterford vs Derry City Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Waterford vs Derry City
Model pick: Derry City (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.42
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Waterford | Derry City |
|---|
| League position | #8 (32 pts) | #7 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 7% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Waterford shown at home, Derry City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Waterford — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Derry City — last 5
LDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Waterford (home) | Derry City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-7-3 in 14 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) | 1-7-6 in 14 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Waterford or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Derry City or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Waterford clean sheet | 24% |
| Derry City clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Derry City is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Derry City edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Waterford vs Derry City — FAQ
Who will win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model makes Derry City the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Waterford 33%, draw 27%, Derry City 40%.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Waterford vs Derry City?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Waterford and 1.42 for Derry City — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Waterford vs Derry City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Waterford or draw is 59%.