Waterford vs Shelbourne Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ireland) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRELAND)
Waterford vs Shelbourne
Model pick: Shelbourne (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.35
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Waterford | Shelbourne |
|---|
| League position | #9 (22 pts) | #34 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 17% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Waterford shown at home, Shelbourne shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Waterford — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Shelbourne — last 5
DWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Waterford (home) | Shelbourne (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-7-3 in 12 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 33% |
Premier League (Ireland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Premier League (Ireland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Waterford or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Shelbourne or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Waterford clean sheet | 26% |
| Shelbourne clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shelbourne is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Shelbourne edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne — FAQ
Who will win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model makes Shelbourne the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Waterford 30%, draw 27%, Shelbourne 44%.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Waterford and 1.35 for Shelbourne — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Waterford or draw is 58%.