West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley
Model pick: Burnley (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.51 – 1.28
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| West Bromwich Albion | Burnley |
|---|
| League position | #7 (3 pts) | #19 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.1 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*West Bromwich Albion shown at home, Burnley shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
West Bromwich Albion — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Burnley — last 5
LDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | West Bromwich Albion (home) | Burnley (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 2-3-14 in 19 (1.1 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 50% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.51 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (21%) |
| Double chance — West Bromwich Albion or draw (1X) | 44% |
| Double chance — Burnley or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| West Bromwich Albion clean sheet | 28% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 60% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Burnley is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Burnley edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley — FAQ
Who will win West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley?
Our statistical model makes Burnley the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: West Bromwich Albion 28%, draw 29%, Burnley 43%.
Will both teams score in West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley?
Expected goals are 0.51 for West Bromwich Albion and 1.28 for Burnley — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (21%). Double chance for West Bromwich Albion or draw is 44%.