West Ham United vs Derby County Prediction & Preview
Championship (England) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (ENGLAND)
West Ham United vs Derby County
Model pick: West Ham United (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.1 – 1.22
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| West Ham United | Derby County |
|---|
| League position | #18 (39 pts) | #21 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 32% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*West Ham United shown at home, Derby County shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
West Ham United — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Derby County — last 5
DLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | West Ham United (home) | Derby County (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-4-9 in 19 (1.4 / 1.6 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% |
Championship (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Championship (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.1 vs 1.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — West Ham United or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Derby County or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| West Ham United clean sheet | 30% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
West Ham United is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. West Ham United are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ West Ham United vs Derby County — FAQ
Who will win West Ham United vs Derby County?
Our statistical model makes West Ham United the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: West Ham United 54%, draw 23%, Derby County 23%.
Will both teams score in West Ham United vs Derby County?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in West Ham United vs Derby County?
Expected goals are 2.1 for West Ham United and 1.22 for Derby County — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in West Ham United vs Derby County?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for West Ham United or draw is 78%.