Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce
Model pick: Widzew Łódź (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.25 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Widzew Łódź | Korona Kielce |
|---|
| League position | #13 (2 pts) | #14 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
*Widzew Łódź shown at home, Korona Kielce shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Widzew Łódź — last 5
WWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Korona Kielce — last 5
DLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Widzew Łódź (home) | Korona Kielce (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Sebastian Bergier (12) | Dawid Blanik (6) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.25 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Widzew Łódź or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Korona Kielce or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Widzew Łódź clean sheet | 39% |
| Korona Kielce clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Widzew Łódź is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Widzew Łódź are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce — FAQ
Who will win Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model makes Widzew Łódź the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Widzew Łódź 42%, draw 30%, Korona Kielce 29%.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Expected goals are 1.25 for Widzew Łódź and 0.95 for Korona Kielce — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Widzew Łódź or draw is 72%.