Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin
Model pick: Widzew Łódź (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Widzew Łódź | Motor Lublin |
|---|
| League position | #15 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 1.8 |
*Widzew Łódź shown at home, Motor Lublin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Widzew Łódź — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Motor Lublin — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Widzew Łódź (home) | Motor Lublin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Sebastian Bergier (12) | Karol Czubak (15) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.59 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Widzew Łódź or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Motor Lublin or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Widzew Łódź clean sheet | 32% |
| Motor Lublin clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Widzew Łódź is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Widzew Łódź are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin — FAQ
Who will win Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model makes Widzew Łódź the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Widzew Łódź 45%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 28%.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
Expected goals are 1.59 for Widzew Łódź and 1.15 for Motor Lublin — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Widzew Łódź vs Motor Lublin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Widzew Łódź or draw is 72%.