Widzew Lodz II vs Lidzbark Warminski Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Widzew Lodz II vs Lidzbark Warminski
Model pick: Lidzbark Warminski (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.49 – 1.13
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Widzew Lodz II | Lidzbark Warminski |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 2.25 |
*Widzew Lodz II shown at home, Lidzbark Warminski shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Widzew Lodz II — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Lidzbark Warminski — last 5
LLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Widzew Lodz II (home) | Lidzbark Warminski (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.25
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.49 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (22%) |
| Double chance — Widzew Lodz II or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Lidzbark Warminski or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Widzew Lodz II clean sheet | 32% |
| Lidzbark Warminski clean sheet | 61% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lidzbark Warminski is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Lidzbark Warminski edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Widzew Lodz II vs Lidzbark Warminski — FAQ
Who will win Widzew Lodz II vs Lidzbark Warminski?
Our statistical model makes Lidzbark Warminski the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Widzew Lodz II 18%, draw 33%, Lidzbark Warminski 49%.
Will both teams score in Widzew Lodz II vs Lidzbark Warminski?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Widzew Lodz II vs Lidzbark Warminski?
Expected goals are 0.49 for Widzew Lodz II and 1.13 for Lidzbark Warminski — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Widzew Lodz II vs Lidzbark Warminski?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (22%). Double chance for Widzew Lodz II or draw is 48%.