Wil vs Aarau Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Wil vs Aarau
Model pick: Aarau (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.8
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wil | Aarau |
|---|
| League position | #9 (3 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 2.0 | 0.5 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 3.0 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Wil shown at home, Aarau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wil — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Aarau — last 5
LDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wil (home) | Aarau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 66% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Wil or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Aarau or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Wil clean sheet | 17% |
| Aarau clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aarau is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Aarau edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wil vs Aarau — FAQ
Who will win Wil vs Aarau?
Our statistical model makes Aarau the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Wil 31%, draw 24%, Aarau 44%.
Will both teams score in Wil vs Aarau?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Wil vs Aarau?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Wil and 1.8 for Aarau — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wil vs Aarau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Wil or draw is 53%.