Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Willem II vs Excelsior
Model pick: Excelsior (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.49
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Willem II | Excelsior |
|---|
| League position | #15 (1 pts) | #9 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 3.0 | 4.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 3.4 / 1.4 |
*Willem II shown at home, Excelsior shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Willem II — last 5
WWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Excelsior — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Willem II (home) | Excelsior (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.5 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 69% |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Willem II or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Excelsior or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Willem II clean sheet | 23% |
| Excelsior clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Excelsior is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Excelsior edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Willem II vs Excelsior — FAQ
Who will win Willem II vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model makes Excelsior the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Willem II 36%, draw 26%, Excelsior 38%.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Excelsior?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Willem II vs Excelsior?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Willem II and 1.49 for Excelsior — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Willem II vs Excelsior?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Willem II or draw is 61%.