Willem II vs NEC Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Willem II vs NEC
Model pick: NEC (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.89
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Willem II | NEC |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #11 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Willem II shown at home, NEC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Willem II — last 5
LDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
NEC — last 5
WLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Willem II (home) | NEC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Basar Onal (1) |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.09
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 1.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Willem II or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — NEC or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Willem II clean sheet | 15% |
| NEC clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
NEC is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, NEC edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Willem II vs NEC — FAQ
Who will win Willem II vs NEC?
Our statistical model makes NEC the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Willem II 25%, draw 24%, NEC 51%.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs NEC?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Willem II vs NEC?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Willem II and 1.89 for NEC — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Willem II vs NEC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Willem II or draw is 46%.