Winterthur vs Wil Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Winterthur vs Wil
Model pick: Winterthur (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 1.26
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Winterthur | Wil |
|---|
| League position | #8 (1 pts) | #5 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 5.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 2.4 |
*Winterthur shown at home, Wil shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Winterthur — last 5
DDDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Wil — last 5
WLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Winterthur (home) | Wil (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (5.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Nishan Burkart (5) | – |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.04
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Winterthur or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Wil or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Winterthur clean sheet | 28% |
| Wil clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Winterthur is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Winterthur are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Winterthur vs Wil — FAQ
Who will win Winterthur vs Wil?
Our statistical model makes Winterthur the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Winterthur 47%, draw 25%, Wil 28%.
Will both teams score in Winterthur vs Wil?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Winterthur vs Wil?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Winterthur and 1.26 for Wil — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Winterthur vs Wil?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Winterthur or draw is 73%.