Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce
Model pick: Wisła Płock (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wisła Płock | Korona Kielce |
|---|
| League position | #13 (4 pts) | #10 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Wisła Płock shown at home, Korona Kielce shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wisła Płock — last 5
WWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Korona Kielce — last 5
LWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wisła Płock (home) | Korona Kielce (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Lukasz Sekulski (8) | Dawid Blanik (6) |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Wisła Płock or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Korona Kielce or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Wisła Płock clean sheet | 39% |
| Korona Kielce clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wisła Płock is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Wisła Płock are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce — FAQ
Who will win Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model makes Wisła Płock the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Wisła Płock 37%, draw 29%, Korona Kielce 34%.
Will both teams score in Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Wisła Płock and 0.94 for Korona Kielce — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wisła Płock vs Korona Kielce?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Wisła Płock or draw is 70%.