Wisla II vs Chelmianka Chelm Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Wisla II vs Chelmianka Chelm
Model pick: Chelmianka Chelm (65%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.24 – 1.48
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 34%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wisla II | Chelmianka Chelm |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 0.2 |
*Wisla II shown at home, Chelmianka Chelm shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wisla II — last 5
WWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Chelmianka Chelm — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 60% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wisla II (home) | Chelmianka Chelm (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.24 vs 1.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (27%) |
| Double chance — Wisla II or draw (1X) | 31% |
| Double chance — Chelmianka Chelm or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 51% / 49% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Wisla II clean sheet | 23% |
| Chelmianka Chelm clean sheet | 79% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chelmianka Chelm is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Despite playing away, Chelmianka Chelm edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wisla II vs Chelmianka Chelm — FAQ
Who will win Wisla II vs Chelmianka Chelm?
Our statistical model makes Chelmianka Chelm the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Wisla II 8%, draw 27%, Chelmianka Chelm 65%.
Will both teams score in Wisla II vs Chelmianka Chelm?
The model gives a 34% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Wisla II vs Chelmianka Chelm?
Expected goals are 0.24 for Wisla II and 1.48 for Chelmianka Chelm — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wisla II vs Chelmianka Chelm?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (27%). Double chance for Wisla II or draw is 31%.