Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Łęczna Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Łęczna
Model pick: Świt Skolwin (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Świt Skolwin | Górnik Łęczna |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Świt Skolwin shown at home, Górnik Łęczna shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Świt Skolwin — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Górnik Łęczna — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Świt Skolwin (home) | Górnik Łęczna (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 59% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Świt Skolwin or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Górnik Łęczna or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Świt Skolwin clean sheet | 27% |
| Górnik Łęczna clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Świt Skolwin is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Świt Skolwin are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Łęczna — FAQ
Who will win Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model makes Świt Skolwin the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Świt Skolwin 40%, draw 26%, Górnik Łęczna 33%.
Will both teams score in Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Łęczna?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Świt Skolwin and 1.31 for Górnik Łęczna — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Świt Skolwin vs Górnik Łęczna?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Świt Skolwin or draw is 67%.