Workington vs Guiseley Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Workington vs Guiseley
Model pick: Guiseley (95%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.0 – 3.63
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 8%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Workington | Guiseley |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 1.67 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Workington shown at home, Guiseley shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Workington — last 5
LLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Guiseley — last 5
WWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Workington (home) | Guiseley (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 42% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.0 vs 3.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (21%) |
| Double chance — Workington or draw (1X) | 3% |
| Double chance — Guiseley or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Workington clean sheet | 3% |
| Guiseley clean sheet | 100% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guiseley is the model's most likely outcome at
95%. Despite playing away, Guiseley edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Workington vs Guiseley — FAQ
Who will win Workington vs Guiseley?
Our statistical model makes Guiseley the most likely result at 95%. Full probabilities: Workington 0%, draw 4%, Guiseley 95%.
Will both teams score in Workington vs Guiseley?
The model gives a 8% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Workington vs Guiseley?
Expected goals are 0.0 for Workington and 3.63 for Guiseley — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Workington vs Guiseley?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (21%). Double chance for Workington or draw is 3%.