Wrzesnia vs Kalisz Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Wrzesnia vs Kalisz
Model pick: Kalisz (70%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.4 – 1.98
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wrzesnia | Kalisz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Wrzesnia shown at home, Kalisz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wrzesnia — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 60% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Kalisz — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wrzesnia (home) | Kalisz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 60% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 43% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.4 vs 1.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (18%) |
| Double chance — Wrzesnia or draw (1X) | 25% |
| Double chance — Kalisz or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Wrzesnia clean sheet | 14% |
| Kalisz clean sheet | 67% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kalisz is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Despite playing away, Kalisz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wrzesnia vs Kalisz — FAQ
Who will win Wrzesnia vs Kalisz?
Our statistical model makes Kalisz the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Wrzesnia 9%, draw 21%, Kalisz 70%.
Will both teams score in Wrzesnia vs Kalisz?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Wrzesnia vs Kalisz?
Expected goals are 0.4 for Wrzesnia and 1.98 for Kalisz — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wrzesnia vs Kalisz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (18%). Double chance for Wrzesnia or draw is 25%.