Wrzesnia vs Kotwica Kornik Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Wrzesnia vs Kotwica Kornik
Model pick: Wrzesnia (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 6.05 – 4.01
Total goals: 10.1
Over 2.5: 84%
Both teams score: 79%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wrzesnia | Kotwica Kornik |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*Wrzesnia shown at home, Kotwica Kornik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wrzesnia — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Kotwica Kornik — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wrzesnia (home) | Kotwica Kornik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 33% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 67%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (6.05 vs 4.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 6-4 (4%) |
| Double chance — Wrzesnia or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Kotwica Kornik or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Wrzesnia clean sheet | 2% |
| Kotwica Kornik clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wrzesnia is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Wrzesnia are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 10.1, this shapes as an open game (84% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wrzesnia vs Kotwica Kornik — FAQ
Who will win Wrzesnia vs Kotwica Kornik?
Our statistical model makes Wrzesnia the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Wrzesnia 63%, draw 13%, Kotwica Kornik 24%.
Will both teams score in Wrzesnia vs Kotwica Kornik?
The model gives a 79% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Wrzesnia vs Kotwica Kornik?
Expected goals are 6.05 for Wrzesnia and 4.01 for Kotwica Kornik — about 10.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wrzesnia vs Kotwica Kornik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 6-4 (4%). Double chance for Wrzesnia or draw is 77%.