Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tonglianglong Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Model pick: Wuhan Three Towns (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
30%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wuhan Three Towns | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
|---|
| League position | #16 (11 pts) | #2 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 1.25 / 1.25 |
*Wuhan Three Towns shown at home, Chongqing Tonglianglong shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns — last 5
LLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Chongqing Tonglianglong — last 5
LDDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wuhan Three Towns (home) | Chongqing Tonglianglong (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Jhonder Cadiz (13) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Wuhan Three Towns or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Wuhan Three Towns clean sheet | 34% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Wuhan Three Towns are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tonglianglong — FAQ
Who will win Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Our statistical model makes Wuhan Three Towns the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 42%, draw 28%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 30%.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.07 for Chongqing Tonglianglong — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Wuhan Three Towns or draw is 70%.