Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding
Model pick: Wuxi Wugou (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wuxi Wugou | Yanbian Longding |
|---|
| League position | #10 (23 pts) | #4 (35 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Wuxi Wugou shown at home, Yanbian Longding shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wuxi Wugou — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Yanbian Longding — last 5
DLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wuxi Wugou (home) | Yanbian Longding (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.5 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Wuxi Wugou or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Yanbian Longding or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Wuxi Wugou clean sheet | 28% |
| Yanbian Longding clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wuxi Wugou is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Wuxi Wugou are backed at home, where they average 0.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding — FAQ
Who will win Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding?
Our statistical model makes Wuxi Wugou the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Wuxi Wugou 43%, draw 26%, Yanbian Longding 31%.
Will both teams score in Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Wuxi Wugou and 1.26 for Yanbian Longding — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wuxi Wugou vs Yanbian Longding?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Wuxi Wugou or draw is 69%.