Xorazm Urganch vs Surkhon Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Jul 28, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Xorazm Urganch vs Surkhon
Model pick: Xorazm Urganch (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Xorazm Urganch | Surkhon |
|---|
| League position | #13 (13 pts) | #11 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Xorazm Urganch shown at home, Surkhon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Xorazm Urganch — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Surkhon — last 5
WDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Xorazm Urganch (home) | Surkhon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-3 in 6 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 2-1-3 in 6 (1.2 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 42% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Xorazm Urganch or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Xorazm Urganch clean sheet | 39% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Xorazm Urganch is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Xorazm Urganch are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Xorazm Urganch vs Surkhon — FAQ
Who will win Xorazm Urganch vs Surkhon?
Our statistical model makes Xorazm Urganch the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Xorazm Urganch 37%, draw 31%, Surkhon 32%.
Will both teams score in Xorazm Urganch vs Surkhon?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Xorazm Urganch vs Surkhon?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Xorazm Urganch and 0.95 for Surkhon — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Xorazm Urganch vs Surkhon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Xorazm Urganch or draw is 69%.