Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation
Model pick: Yangpyeong (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yangpyeong | Busan Transportation |
|---|
| League position | #12 (16 pts) | #4 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Yangpyeong shown at home, Busan Transportation shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yangpyeong — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Busan Transportation — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yangpyeong (home) | Busan Transportation (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-3 in 6 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 3-3-0 in 6 (1.5 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 49% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.41
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.28 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Yangpyeong or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Busan Transportation or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Yangpyeong clean sheet | 28% |
| Busan Transportation clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yangpyeong is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Yangpyeong are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation — FAQ
Who will win Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation?
Our statistical model makes Yangpyeong the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Yangpyeong 36%, draw 28%, Busan Transportation 36%.
Will both teams score in Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation?
Expected goals are 1.28 for Yangpyeong and 1.29 for Busan Transportation — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yangpyeong vs Busan Transportation?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Yangpyeong or draw is 63%.