Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP
Model pick: Gyeongju HNP (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.9 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yangpyeong | Gyeongju HNP |
|---|
| League position | #12 (16 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.3 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 3.0 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*Yangpyeong shown at home, Gyeongju HNP shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yangpyeong — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Gyeongju HNP — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yangpyeong (home) | Gyeongju HNP (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-4 in 7 (2.0 / 2.3 goals per game) | 2-3-4 in 9 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 43% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.41
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.9 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Yangpyeong or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Gyeongju HNP or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Yangpyeong clean sheet | 27% |
| Gyeongju HNP clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gyeongju HNP is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Gyeongju HNP edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP — FAQ
Who will win Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP?
Our statistical model makes Gyeongju HNP the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Yangpyeong 27%, draw 29%, Gyeongju HNP 44%.
Will both teams score in Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP?
Expected goals are 0.9 for Yangpyeong and 1.31 for Gyeongju HNP — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yangpyeong vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Yangpyeong or draw is 54%.