Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 08:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen
Model pick: Siheung Citizen (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.66
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yangpyeong | Siheung Citizen |
|---|
| League position | #13 (17 pts) | #1 (46 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 78% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 3.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Yangpyeong shown at home, Siheung Citizen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yangpyeong — last 5
WLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Siheung Citizen — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yangpyeong (home) | Siheung Citizen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-4 in 8 (2.1 / 2.4 goals per game) | 7-1-1 in 9 (1.4 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.42
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 1.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Yangpyeong or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Siheung Citizen or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Yangpyeong clean sheet | 19% |
| Siheung Citizen clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Siheung Citizen is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Siheung Citizen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen — FAQ
Who will win Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen?
Our statistical model makes Siheung Citizen the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Yangpyeong 25%, draw 26%, Siheung Citizen 49%.
Will both teams score in Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Yangpyeong and 1.66 for Siheung Citizen — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yangpyeong vs Siheung Citizen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Yangpyeong or draw is 48%.